Showing posts with label retail. Show all posts
Showing posts with label retail. Show all posts

Sunday, May 1, 2011

Busting the myth about oil company profits




What can we do to stop commodity speculators from causing the rapid hike in gasoline prices? Arrest them, put them in jail, and try them before a jury before we hang them?

Early last week, President Obama started that ball rolling by telling US Attorney General Eric Holder to stop oil market fraud. Eric Holder promptly announced he was appointing a “working group” focused on rooting out the cases of fraud in the oil markets that might affect gasoline prices. This might work in any other business but the petroleum industry is not going to be simple to control.

Later in the week ExxonMobil reported their 1st quarter profits went up a whopping 69 percent to $10.7 billion from the same quarter a year ago. This ignited a firestorm almost immediately raising the ire of politicians and activists alike, who accused the oil industry of profiteering while Americans pay nearly $4 a gallon for gasoline.

Instead of being good news it was reported as bad news on the front page of major newspapers and became the lead off story on most of the TV and radio news broadcasts.

On the other hand Apple, which showed a 95% increase in net profits in their quarter from $3 billion to $6 billion, had Steve Jobs proudly announce those results in his April 20, 2011 news conference.

No one screamed “Off with their heads!” about Apple’s profits, so why all the brouhaha about ExxonMobil and the other oil company’s profits? Surely they are both stalwart organizations making the capitalistic system work for their shareholders, expecting to receive a fair return on monies invested in those companies. They should be allowed to make a profit with products everyone either wants or needs and you can charge for them according to what the market will bear.

ExxonMobil sent out Ken Cohen, their Vice President of Public and Government Affairs, to face skeptic reporters at a news conference on April 28, 2011. He launched a preemptive public relations strike to blunt expected criticism from politicians and the public about of seeing gasoline pump prices increase along with ExxonMobil’s profits.

The following graph from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) shows the results of what happens to oil company profits when crude oil prices increase:





Ken Cohen wrote an article entitled: "Gas prices and industry earnings: A few things to think about", which can be read it in full on the ExxonMobil Perspectives blog at http://bit.ly/j2qbkB

ExxonMobil does not own the patents to the iPhone or iPad franchise but they have something even better by being the largest company in an oligopoly made of oil companies producing a product we cannot do without . . . . . . fuel.

A few of the talking points used in Ken Cohen’s article need closer scrutiny and examination since they are now been repeated almost verbatim by pundits and analysts alike:

Point: We don’t own 95 percent of our station, and therefore we don’t set the price.
Counterpoint: The first part is correct; however the retail pricing manager for ExxonMobil checks the spot market regularly during the day and makes wholesale pricing decisions dependent on the area of the country. The methods used by ExxonMobil are rack and zone pricing giving them the ability charge whatever the market will bear. The competitive pricing data is gathered for them by third parties such as Oil Price Information Service and The Lundberg Survey. The latter is the most important one since Lundberg gathers Dealer Tank Wagon (DTW) prices for each locale in which ExxonMobil has retail operations. Rack pricing is used to set the wholesale prices for either branded or unbranded gasoline. The DTW prices are charged to those dealers who have branded supply contracts direct with ExxonMobil. These are not the prices posted on the pumps at the station and are the most secretive part of gasoline retailing. Zone pricing, or a Temporary Voluntary Allowance (TVA) method of pricing, controls almost 85% of all the branded-contracted gasoline sold in the US with the difference sold to unbranded non-contracted stations.

Point: Local stations are often owned by a businessman or businesswoman in your community, and they set their own prices based on local market conditions.
Counterpoint: The owner or dealer of a local station receives deliveries of gasoline with the new wholesale price set by the oil companies, and then adds a margin to the gallon of gasoline. They are contractually obligated with long term supply agreements to only buy from the “branded” supplier with whom they signed up.

Point: For every gallon of gasoline, diesel or finished products we manufactured and sold in the United States in the last three months of 2010, we earned a little more than 2 cents per gallon.
Counterpoint: Adding all the oil company profits together including their upstream, downstream and chemical divisions and then dividing that amount by the total gallons of fuel sold is somewhat misleading. Each one of those is separate profit centers and not the only products sold by the oil company.


Point: Crude oil is a commodity, and like all other commodities – such as corn, wheat or sugar – the price is determined by buyers and sellers in a global market.
Counterpoint: ExxonMobil is one of five “super major" vertically integrated oil companies in the US controlling the process of refining gasoline from the wellhead to the pump. Crude oil, the raw material from which gasoline is refined, is either purchased or obtained from company owned or controlled wells with prices set according to the gravity of the crude oil. ExxonMobil utilizes the Last In/First Out method of accounting and the last price at which crude oil was obtained establishes the posted price for crude oil delivered to their refinery gates.

Point: ExxonMobil owns less than 1 percent of the world’s oil reserves, and it produces less than 3 percent of the world’s daily oil supply.
Counterpoint: ExxonMobil is the largest oil company in the world and when the elephant in the jungle trumpets, the market listens. The throughput of their refineries and percentage of market share have a big influence on the other oil companies’ reaction on how they in turn price their products.

Point: Last year, our total taxes and duties to the US government topped $9.8 billion, which includes an income tax expense of $1.6 billion.
Counterpoint: This is a somewhat misleading statement since taxes and duties include tax credits allowed on payment to foreign governments. It is another subsidy, devised by the US State Department in the 1950s, which allows US based oil companies to reclassify the royalties they are charged by foreign governments as taxes. Those can then be deducted dollar-for-dollar from their domestic tax bill. That provision alone will cost the federal government $8.2 billion over the next decade, according to the Treasury Department. These are currently allowed to be reported as taxes paid to the US Government. The following opinion re-printed from the Harvard Law Review gives a more detailed explanation on how this works:


BP, ChevronTexaco, ConocoPhillips and Shell, the other four super-major oil companies, said their profits rose in the first quarter because of soaring crude prices and other factors.

Members of Congress and President Obama used the record setting earning reports to step up calls for the repeal of the $4 billion in annual depletion allowance tax breaks for oil producers. John Boehner, R-Oh, Speaker of the House, first seemed to want to go along with eliminating this tax break only for the large oil companies but then changed his mind.

Jeff Sheets, Chief Financial Officer of ConocoPhillips, said that while the industry's profits are higher, the margins are still slim compared to the amount of assets oil companies maintain, and profits haven't risen as fast as gasoline prices. “When critics focus only on the bottom-line number, they lose the scope of what's required to produce that profit," Sheets said
.
The industry further argues that ending tax breaks would cut investment in new oil and natural gas projects, cost new jobs and decrease oil and natural gas production.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said the Senate as early as next week could take up Obama's proposal to halt the tax breaks and President Obama said the $4 billion a year in oil subsidies would be spent on alternative energy investments.

Holding a commodity off the market and then selling it after the price goes up is only one form of speculation, and it’s not one that works very well in the oil market. Simply put when gasoline prices increase so do the profits at the oil companies.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Good news: Prices are up for crude oil but down for gasoline

Dateline: Terry, Montana
July 1, 2009

The price of crude oil has been hovering around $70 a barrel for the last week meanwhile gasoline pump prices in the U.S. and Canada are down by about a nickel a gallon or 1 cent per litre during that same time. The average price for a gallon of gasoline is $2.63 today per the AAA fuelguage report. Montana’s gasoline prices are averaging $2.71 barely nudging down from a week ago price.

If there seems to be no correlation between the two, it is because U.S. and Canadian refineries are just now running crude oil they purchased earlier this year. The typical shelf time in shipping from the well to the refinery is about six weeks and crude oil in the tank at the refineries is still at around $40 a barrel. So who do we blame? The greedy oil companies, those evil Wall Street speculators or is it just plain simple Gasoline Marketing 101?

Crude oil accounts for 55 percent of the cost of gasoline. The other big chunk is the federal, state and local taxes, which make up 24 percent of the cost. Then we add refining costs and profits of 15 percent to the cost of gasoline. Distribution and marketing costs made up the final 6 percent of the cost.

The Petroleum Marketers Association reports the profit margin at each local gas station of between 3 and 15 cents per gallon of gasoline.

This morning we wait for the release of the weekly Department of Energy's inventory statistics, which will give some direction to the market. Other factors may be at work as well with a myriad of glitches at U.S. refineries spooking the traders into shoring up their deals before the July 4th weekend. With just three trading days left in the week no one would knowingly get caught at the end of a short stick in keeping physical product flowing into their tanks.

Armed conflicts and threats around the world are receiving the usual buzz by the paper traders and one that is having an immediate affect is in Nigeria. That has resulted in almost 1 million barrels per day of crude oil being cut off from being shipped to the U.S.

The Shell Oil platform and shipping terminal in the Niger Delta was blown up by militants last weekend interrupting vitally needed crude oil from being loaded. The Nigerian government has desperately been trying to deal with the situation and has even offered amnesty to the dissidents if they lay down their arms.
Speculators are hard at work trying to make money by betting on any outcome. But the adage that “For every winner, there is a loser” applies to the investment business just like it does in sports.

Bob van der Valk resides in Terry, Montana and is the fuel-pricing analyst with 4Refuel Inc. in Lynnwood, Washington. He can be contacted at (971) 678-2975 or e-mail to: tridemoil@aol.com

His viewpoints and previous articles about the petroleum industry can be found at web site address: http://www.4vqp.com/ourconsultants/thegasguy.html

Any views expressed in this newsletter are those of the writer, except where the writer specifically states them to be the views of the 4Refuel group of companies.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Oklahoma Attorney General says BP/Arco manipulates gasoline prices

Dateline: Terry, Montana
June 27, 2009 6:00 AM MDT

Nationally the average price for regular unleaded gasoline is $2.658 down about 3 cents per gallon from a week ago. Montana's gasoline prices have leveled off at $2.72 with California staying high at $3.01 per gallon. Hawaii gets the prize for the highest cost for gasoline at $3.09 per gallon in the AAA fuelgauge.report. The gasoline spot market price meanwhile has dropped by 20 cents per gallon in the last two weeks but retail pump prices have not reacted in kind and are not expected to drop much more before the end of next week.

Pump prices have barely budged with the spot market gasoline and diesel prices going down another 2-3 cents per gallon at the end of this week. The August WTI crude oil price decreased $1.07 to just above $69.16 a barrel on Friday

Big industry news was published in the Oklahoma Daily Journal on Friday that State Attorney General Drew Edmondson had filed a lawsuit against BP/Arco (BPL). He is accusing them of gaming the price of gasoline and crude oil since 2002. This alleged scheme had previously been brought to the attention of the Federal Trade Commission but Edmondson claims to have found fresh evidence that BP was able to manipulate gas prices by hoarding short-term motor fuel and crude oil supplies.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) investigated those same allegations in 2006. At that time, BP/Arco was suspected of manipulating the petroleum market by controlling the physical West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil inventory at the Cushing, Oklahoma terminal. They have since divested some of those assets but they are still dominant in trading WTI at the Cushing terminal.

The initial investigation into trading practices between oil companies was called for by Congress in the wake of the huge gasoline and fuel price spikes, which occurred in the aftermath of the Rita and Katrina hurricanes. Those storms ended up hitting refinery complex located on the U.S. Gulf Coast in August and September of 2005. Extensive damage was incurred to those refineries and interrupted the supply of crude oil, finished fuels and lubricating oils to the market.

The oil companies were absolved of any wrong doing by the FTC in the "Investigation of Gasoline Price Manipulation and Post-Katrina Gasoline Price Increases” published in the spring of 2006. That report concluded that normal supply and demand market forces were the reasons for the price variances in the petroleum markets.

AG Drew Edmondson has announced his intentions to be a candidate for Governor in Oklahoma in 2010. That announcement and the filing of the lawsuit against BP/Arco were coincidentally made on June 10, 2009. Any outcome of this lawsuit will definitely also have an effect on the upcoming election in crude oil rich Oklahoma.

Bob van der Valk is the Director of US Branded Licensing with 4Refuel Inc. in Lynnwood, Washington and can be contacted at (971) 678-2975 or by email at: tridemoil@aol.com

Bob’s web site address is: www.4vqp.com/ourconsultants/thegasguy.html