Showing posts with label refueling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label refueling. Show all posts

Monday, September 21, 2009

Prepare for a drop in diesel and gasoline prices

September 20, 2009 5:30 PM MDT

You will soon be paying under $2 per gallon again for gasoline and diesel fuel and crude oil will go back down into the 40's. So you can make plans for that trip to see the grandparents for the holidays as well as give the economy a much needed boost. Demand for gasoline in the United States typically falls after Labor Day due to vacation season ending. For the week ending September 4, 2009 demand for gasoline was at its lowest point since January 9, 2008 according to MasterCard Advisors LLC.

Inversion of diesel fuel versus gasoline prices has not been the case in the United States since the Rita and Katrina hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast in August 2005. That event had a major long term impact on inventories of gasoline, distillates and lube stocks on both side of the border. About 25% of the U.S. refinery capacity is located on the Gulf and was severely affected by the weather phenomenon.

Money has been poured into the commodities markets recently as the U.S. dollar fell against the Euro. Crude oil prices have risen from a low of $33 to $72 a barrel last week.

For month investors months have used crude oil as their hedge against inflation, betting that oil prices will likely increase as the economy improves and global supplies start to shrink.

So far 2009 has turned into the first normal year for the petroleum markets since 2004 due to the absence of the high roller speculators and adverse weather conditions. Those investors were burned in the big oil price freefall during the second half of 2008 by following bad advice from their investment brokers.

In August 2009 the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission took initial steps to enforce the strict limitations on dealings between bankers and stock analysts. The law requires investment firms to engage in “fair dealings with customers” and prohibits in-house analysts from issuing opinions and research reports that are at odds with their true beliefs about the market. These opinions are spread fast, far and wide utilizing today’s high tech communications.

The market is also very nervous after news that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group, which runs the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), notified traders and brokers of tighter enforcement of existing position limits on NYMEX, CME, and other exchanges as of September 14, 2009.

US oil refiners, who were producing diesel in record numbers last year, reversed course earlier this year and made their refining stream fall in line with the flat demand for gasoline and the ever shrinking demand for diesel fuel. Refinery runs have drifted down to 86.94% of capacity from the previous week's 87.2%. Inventories of crude oil and its finished products are at all time high.

That will have the affect of starting the downward slide for gasoline and diesel fuel prices with the price of crude oil following right along.

Bob van der Valk is the Director of US Branded Licensing and Fuel-Pricing Analyst with 4Refuel Inc. in Lynnwood, Washington and can be contacted at (425) 216-9072 or by email at bvan@4refuel.com and web site: http://www.4refuel.com/

Bob’s professional web site is: www.4vqp.com/ourconsultants/thegasguy.html
Any views expressed in this newsletter are those of the writer, except where the writer specifically states them to be the views of the 4Refuel group of companies.

Saturday, July 4, 2009

What can be done about diesel fuel prices?

Dateline: Terry, Montana, U.S.
July 4, 2009

The big holiday and vacation season is once again upon us. Canada and the U.S. just celebrated their respective national birthdays and all eyes in our industry are being kept on whether consumer confidence has re-instilled itself.

Diesel fuel is one of the most critical commodities in keeping the Canadian and U.S. economies rolling. In our transportation and construction industries almost all aspects of operations are fueled by diesel engines. Rising diesel fuel prices can translate to increasing costs of products and services. In order to know what can be done to slow down this increase, you as a consumer need to be aware of its causes and find creative ways to save money on your fuel usage.

There are several basic elements that determine the worth of a gallon of diesel. About fifty-five percent of the cost of diesel reflects the price of crude oil, which is raw material for diesel production. Crude oil is brought from the oil fields to the refineries where the ultra-low sulfur diesel, among other petroleum products, is extracted.

Given a barrel of crude is 42 gallons; the average refinery is able to produce about 8 gallons of diesel and jet fuel or 20 % of the total. About half of the barrel is made into gasoline with the remainder in low end bunker fuel oils and other petroleum products. Refining accounts for nearly fifteen percent of diesel fuel cost.

The remaining elements of the cost of diesel fuel are government taxes and the expense of advertising and delivery. A ten percent excise tax is levied onto all fuel products that are refined in Canada. Although foreign fuel can avoid this tax, it is generally cheaper to buy locally refined fuel as import taxes generally are passed along to the consumer. Marketing and distribution make up about five percent of total diesel fuel cost, but this can often be the most volatile factor affecting the value of diesel fuel.

This is where the diesel fuel consumers may have a sure fire way to save money on their cost for operating their diesel trucks and equipment. They can make arrangements with an on-site fueling company like 4Refuel headquartered in Langley BC, Canada. They currently service most of the Canadian market and recently expanded into the U.S. West Coast market by opening an office in Lynnwood, Washington serving the Greater Seattle area.

Saving fuel and lowering consumption is not only good for the environment; it decreases demand, and ultimately your cost. The factors that affect diesel fuel prices seem complex, but an understanding of the basic principles can empower the individual consumer to make the right decisions.

Bob van der Valk resides in Terry, Montana and is the Fuel-pricing Analyst with 4Refuel LLC in Lynnwood, Washington. He can be contacted at (971) 678-2975 or e-mail him at: bvan@4refuel.com

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Good news: Prices are up for crude oil but down for gasoline

Dateline: Terry, Montana
July 1, 2009

The price of crude oil has been hovering around $70 a barrel for the last week meanwhile gasoline pump prices in the U.S. and Canada are down by about a nickel a gallon or 1 cent per litre during that same time. The average price for a gallon of gasoline is $2.63 today per the AAA fuelguage report. Montana’s gasoline prices are averaging $2.71 barely nudging down from a week ago price.

If there seems to be no correlation between the two, it is because U.S. and Canadian refineries are just now running crude oil they purchased earlier this year. The typical shelf time in shipping from the well to the refinery is about six weeks and crude oil in the tank at the refineries is still at around $40 a barrel. So who do we blame? The greedy oil companies, those evil Wall Street speculators or is it just plain simple Gasoline Marketing 101?

Crude oil accounts for 55 percent of the cost of gasoline. The other big chunk is the federal, state and local taxes, which make up 24 percent of the cost. Then we add refining costs and profits of 15 percent to the cost of gasoline. Distribution and marketing costs made up the final 6 percent of the cost.

The Petroleum Marketers Association reports the profit margin at each local gas station of between 3 and 15 cents per gallon of gasoline.

This morning we wait for the release of the weekly Department of Energy's inventory statistics, which will give some direction to the market. Other factors may be at work as well with a myriad of glitches at U.S. refineries spooking the traders into shoring up their deals before the July 4th weekend. With just three trading days left in the week no one would knowingly get caught at the end of a short stick in keeping physical product flowing into their tanks.

Armed conflicts and threats around the world are receiving the usual buzz by the paper traders and one that is having an immediate affect is in Nigeria. That has resulted in almost 1 million barrels per day of crude oil being cut off from being shipped to the U.S.

The Shell Oil platform and shipping terminal in the Niger Delta was blown up by militants last weekend interrupting vitally needed crude oil from being loaded. The Nigerian government has desperately been trying to deal with the situation and has even offered amnesty to the dissidents if they lay down their arms.
Speculators are hard at work trying to make money by betting on any outcome. But the adage that “For every winner, there is a loser” applies to the investment business just like it does in sports.

Bob van der Valk resides in Terry, Montana and is the fuel-pricing analyst with 4Refuel Inc. in Lynnwood, Washington. He can be contacted at (971) 678-2975 or e-mail to: tridemoil@aol.com

His viewpoints and previous articles about the petroleum industry can be found at web site address: http://www.4vqp.com/ourconsultants/thegasguy.html

Any views expressed in this newsletter are those of the writer, except where the writer specifically states them to be the views of the 4Refuel group of companies.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

All We Need to Survive: Water, Food and …….Gasoline!

Dateline: Terry, Montana
June 3, 2009 - 11:30 MST
By: Bob van der Valk

While the market sorted itself out yesterday, I was busy trying to keep from running out of water at the Bob's Big Boy Ranch in Terry, Montana. At one point we not only had our artesian well down but our hard water well had shut down as well. Unexpectedly, we had to make a quick trip and run out to the Terry Super Valu grocery store to stock up on bottled water. We may well be having a similar problem happening right now in the refining and petroleum business.

With crude oil being pumped out of the ground like water, any interruption will cause consumers to look for options to maintain some sense of normalcy. In our case, we almost decided to move back in with our daughter Inger and her family while the repairs were being made. But, what do we do when we run out gasoline? We can't do anything especially when living out in the country where long distances have to be covered by car or truck every day.

The Department of Energy statistics were bearish for diesel and neutral for gasoline today. The wholesale spot market price is down 4 cents per gallon for diesel and no change for gasoline, so far. So far the July WTI crude oil price is down $2.21 to $66.34 a barrel. The Nymex is off for now but there is doubt it will stay down that much at the close of business today with buyers perched to jump in as soon as they sense the low has been reached.

This year it's all about oil refineries being able to keep up with the expected increase in demand of gasoline for the upcoming summer driving season. Petroleum traders will be concentrating on the supply issues with the biggest focus on refinery gasoline output.

This morning's Department of Energy report is the tale of the tape for an upcoming fight between the bulls and the bears in the petroleum market. There are plenty of points to go around supporting both sides of the arguments to reach conclusions that crude prices and therefore gasoline prices may either shoot like a rocket or go back down with a bullet.


President Obama was greeted by Saudi King Abdullah upon landing in the Middle East today. He also received the news that the Saudi Arabian Oil Company Aramco had raised their crude oil prices from $1.05 to $3.25 a barrel for shipments in July 2009. The heavy crude oil is the one at the lowest with the light crude oil selling at the highest price. All of their crude oil prices are ratcheted up or down from the posted Brent crude oil price.

Our water situation will be resolved within a day or two but the current market situation for gasoline prices will continue to play itself out throughout the summer months. Right now the Four Corners gas station in Terry still has plenty of gasoline in the tank but it us 10 cents per gallon more today then it was a week ago.

We better keep the horses saddled up and ready just in case we will need them for back up. There may come a time when I will have start reporting the prices of hay and alfalfa instead of gasoline.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices Undergoing Stress Test

Don't look now, but the price of crude oil has been moving sharply higher over the last couple of weeks That is now up 80 per cent over the last 3 months with the price of WTI crude oil increasing from $32 to $58 a barrel in just a short thee months. The price of was up another 85 cents per barrel early Friday heading towards the $60 a barrel mark by the end of the day. Fuel prices for gasoline and diesel are going up in lockstep with another 2-3 cents per gallon increase today.

At the same time the national gasoline price per the AAA fuelgauge report from went from $1.56 to $2.16 per gallon as of today. This would normally set off alarm bells in the media with articles about suspected gas price gouging. These would then be followed up with the usual threats of investigation by head line grabbing politicians and divergent government agencies.

Reporters have been quick to report that at $2.16 we are still paying almost a buck and a half per gallon less than we did before Memorial Day last year. Their question of the day remains: “Why are prices now heading back up to $2.50 on the West Coast and the national average to $2.25 per gallon?”

In plain and simple terms the refineries have finished making their switch to summer gas and it reduces supplies by 10% per cent. This year, however, as gasoline prices have been going back up the price of crude oil has been dragged up along with it.

Along with that President Obama's current budget proposal, which must be approved by Congress, includes ending "unjustified tax loopholes" for oil companies. That will raise $26 billion over the next 10 years for alternative energy development.

The White House rejected as "unfounded" industry claims that by ending the tax breaks it would take a significant toll on US domestic oil and gas production. It said oil and, to a large extent, gas are internationally traded commodities whose prices are determined on the world market. "The oil and gas subsidies are costly to the American taxpayer and do little to incentivize production or reduce energy prices," the administration said in its budget package submitted to the Congress.

The budget also includes increasing federal road taxes on gasoline and diesel with 10 and 14 cents per gallon being added to the 18.4 and 24.4 cents respectively.

Price of gasoline is not going to going back down any time soon perhaps not until the fall of this year. But that will be another story for another day.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Flu Bug Bites Oil Market

Petroleum traders have been keeping a weary eye on the news about the swine flu spreading to other parts of the world. But by now they are used to having the least amount of bad news effect crude oil and in turn fuel prices.

However, the current scare may be short lived as the real story behind the headlines is just beginning to develop. Another medical authority in the field, Dr. Jay Gordon from Santa Monica, CA, has been sending out Twitter messages in the last few day to let people know that the World Health Organization has only able to confirm 7 deaths in Mexico, from the new H1N1 swine flu virus strain, not the 20 being reported far and wide by various media outlets.

Dr. Gordon says that the reason the swine flu pandemic being hyped by the media is to get people to obtain unnecessary vaccinations with Tamiflu to prevent from getting this disease.

The WTI crude oil price is went another 22 cents to 49.92 a barrel on fears that this new flu strain is going to further depress already bleak oil demand. Gasoline and diesel spot market prices on the West Coast dropped 1 - 3 cents per gallon. Pump prices will follow and the average price may even get back down below $2.30 per gallon for regular unleaded gasoline by the end of this week in California. The average price of $2.05 per gallon for gasoline will dip by about the same amount to $2.02 per gallon for the whole of the US.

Oil prices tumbled yesterday under a sea of panic as "swine" flu fever gripped the world's media and the worlds oil markets. Although the probabilities of this evolving into a world wide killer pandemic are still small, the fears of such an occurrence happening are enough to spark short selling in the energy markets. Air travel has already been affected, with the current media hype exaggerating the outbreak of this new strain, as people avoid areas with outbreaks of the flu.

The other shoe will drop on diesel and jet fuel prices if this havoc continues any longer. Jet fuel will start backing up into the distillate stream of the refineries and cause a free fall in both jet and diesel fuel prices.

In other news the Shell refinery in Anacortes, Washington is still struggling to get back up into full operation and is now expected to be up as soon as tomorrow. The Shell and the Tesoro refineries in Anacortes went down on Friday, April 24th due to an unexpected power outage. That will keep fuel prices up and supplies tight in the Northwest US.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Highway Robbery for California Gas Station Owners

Samuel Johnson said: "Hell is paved with good intentions." It seems that saying applies to unhappy independent service station owners in California today. They made it a through a down turn in the economy and barely survived a recession that is still taking its toll.

Then along comes the bad news in the form of inaction by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) on the letter from Governor Schwarzenegger requesting a delay or holiday in the implementation date set for the Enhanced Vapor Recovery Phase II regulation.

Air Quality Management District personnel have been out in force in the field for the last 10 days. They have been writing up their Notices of Violation to any service station property owner not meeting the mandated April 1, 2009 deadline.

Collateral damage has been caused in the form of gas stations and truck stops being forced to lock up their gasoline pumps or worse yet shut down their whole facility. By CARB’s own count about 5% of the gas stations, designated as Gasoline Dispensing Facilities (GDF), have already done just that.

The number of stations being reported as being in compliance by CARB and the Air Districts are confusing at best.

In some cases stations with pulled permits are already being counted as being in compliance when in fact they have not yet been fully certified. A good faith effort apparently suffices just to make their numbers look better.

By any count almost 40% of the 11,500 California gas stations have not fully complied with the EVR Phase II regulation. Of that number about 1,000 are expected to hang up their nozzles for the last time and lock up their pumps by December 31, 2009. That is the drop dead date by which station owners will have to make the investment to install the vapor enhancement equipment or be shut down by the air districts.

Fines are being imposed based on the level of compliance and volume of gasoline pumped ranging anywhere from $1,000 to $4,000 per month for each station.

Apparently this was meant to serve as notice by the regulators to recalcitrant owners, who did not heed the warnings given out as early as 2000, that the rule would be enforced. Fact of the matter is that the regulation passed through the approval process by CARB and the California legislature without those technologies even being in place.

Major oil companies jumped on the band wagon early by insisting that the law be enforced if they were going to be making the required investment. The service station equipment manufacturers went to work and one system was approved by CARB in 2005. As late as 2008 two more systems were certified and at this writing one more is in the works to be approved by CARB.

As magic would have it each system became more economical than the one before. It was even made it possible to retrofit the nozzles being used by stations equipped with the Phase I equipment. The earlier approved system was only able to interface with its own equipment and was not adaptable to the other systems. Initially station owners had to make a choice to replace their whole system or wait it out until 2008 to retrofit their existing nozzles and install the scrubbers with the CARB certified equipment made to fit their own equipment specifications.

Up jumped the devil just as things were beginning to look up for the independent service station owners. The recession came along with the resulting financial tightening of the credit market. Station owners in the process on obtaining loans were put on hold and told to wait until the banking situation straightened itself out.

Accusations are now being made by regulators and clean air organizations such as the Sierra Club that this group of station owners is not doing their part for cleaner air in California. The station owners are citizens, who live and breathe the same air just like the rest of their fellow Californians. In the past they have made improvements to their facilities to aid in the clean air effort and have plans to continue to do so in the future.

In-Station Diagnostic (ISD) portion of the law takes affect in a year and the EVR Phase II compliance date could have easily been coincided with the implementation of that program. One program interfaces with the other when both of them installed at the same time could save the owners money.

Also starting in 1998 new automobiles in California had Onboard Refueling Vapor Recovery (ORVR) systems installed on them. The ORVR system captures the gasoline vapors that are displaced when gasoline is dispensed to the vehicle tank and stores those vapors in a canister filled with activated carbon. When the vehicle engine is started, gasoline vapors stored on the carbon are purged and burned in the engine. The ORVR system on new cars interferes with the ISD system creating false readings that throws the system into alarm at the station.

As of 2008 about 65% of the automobiles and light trucks in California are equipped with the ORVR system and about 94% of them will be so equipped in another ten years. In other words the ORVR and the EVR Phase II system will overlap each other recapturing the gasoline vapors during fill ups. California station owners will have spent a lot of money for little gain all in the name of attaining cleaner air.

Reasonable people should be making reasonable choices and this time Californians are going to get hurt right where it will hurt them the most – in their pocket book.

It’s time for each of us to open our windows and stick out our heads and yell like broadcaster Howard Beale did in the movie Network: “I’m mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore”.