Prepare for a drop in diesel and gasoline prices

September 20, 2009 5:30 PM MDT

You will soon be paying under $2 per gallon again for gasoline and diesel fuel and crude oil will go back down into the 40's. So you can make plans for that trip to see the grandparents for the holidays as well as give the economy a much needed boost. Demand for gasoline in the United States typically falls after Labor Day due to vacation season ending. For the week ending September 4, 2009 demand for gasoline was at its lowest point since January 9, 2008 according to MasterCard Advisors LLC.

Inversion of diesel fuel versus gasoline prices has not been the case in the United States since the Rita and Katrina hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast in August 2005. That event had a major long term impact on inventories of gasoline, distillates and lube stocks on both side of the border. About 25% of the U.S. refinery capacity is located on the Gulf and was severely affected by the weather phenomenon.

Money has been poured into the commodities markets recently as the U.S. dollar fell against the Euro. Crude oil prices have risen from a low of $33 to $72 a barrel last week.

For month investors months have used crude oil as their hedge against inflation, betting that oil prices will likely increase as the economy improves and global supplies start to shrink.

So far 2009 has turned into the first normal year for the petroleum markets since 2004 due to the absence of the high roller speculators and adverse weather conditions. Those investors were burned in the big oil price freefall during the second half of 2008 by following bad advice from their investment brokers.

In August 2009 the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission took initial steps to enforce the strict limitations on dealings between bankers and stock analysts. The law requires investment firms to engage in “fair dealings with customers” and prohibits in-house analysts from issuing opinions and research reports that are at odds with their true beliefs about the market. These opinions are spread fast, far and wide utilizing today’s high tech communications.

The market is also very nervous after news that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group, which runs the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), notified traders and brokers of tighter enforcement of existing position limits on NYMEX, CME, and other exchanges as of September 14, 2009.

US oil refiners, who were producing diesel in record numbers last year, reversed course earlier this year and made their refining stream fall in line with the flat demand for gasoline and the ever shrinking demand for diesel fuel. Refinery runs have drifted down to 86.94% of capacity from the previous week's 87.2%. Inventories of crude oil and its finished products are at all time high.

That will have the affect of starting the downward slide for gasoline and diesel fuel prices with the price of crude oil following right along.

Bob van der Valk is the Director of US Branded Licensing and Fuel-Pricing Analyst with 4Refuel Inc. in Lynnwood, Washington and can be contacted at (425) 216-9072 or by email at bvan@4refuel.com and web site: http://www.4refuel.com/

Bob’s professional web site is: www.4vqp.com/ourconsultants/thegasguy.html
Any views expressed in this newsletter are those of the writer, except where the writer specifically states them to be the views of the 4Refuel group of companies.

AT & T - Apple iPhone service in Montana not allowed

The email below was sent to Tim Cook, acting CEO of Apple, to let him know about my frustations with the iPhone cell and data service in Montana. Basically AT & T has told me that they do not plan on to service this area of the country.

Bob van der Valk

Mr. Cook:

My original email to Randall Stephenson, CEO of AT &T, received great confusion by their customer service personnel when I asked them a very simple question: "When will AT & T cut off my service?" It took three phone call from Justin Krischenmann in the Office of the President for AT & T to finally get the correct answer. I will be cut off 90 days from the date after receiving my first notice of violation of terms my contract.

I am forwarding you the email sent to Mr. Stephenson to let him know how I feel about his company's service.

Bob van der Valk
508 S. Washington Ave.
Terry, MT 59349
(406) 635-4233
(971) 67-2975

Mr. Stephenson:

I have found out more information about the exclusive AT & T arrangement with Apple by posting my original complaint on your web site at:

http://forums.wireless.att.com/cng/board/message?board.id=reportservice&message.id=43465&jump=true

I work in petroleum marketing and what your company is doing would be called cherry picking in my business. You will not be able to continue promote your brand in the US as you exceed your capacity and the iPhone cell phone concept will sink as a result.

The iTouch and iTouch Tablet will soon take over the main part of the business as Apple continues to promote their many applications which in turn will require more data usage on your system than you are currently unable to service in areas such as Montana. The mobile cell phone business will go to the company with service in the widest service area. Below is the last reply I have posted on your web site.

I look forward to your response.
Bob van der Valk
508 S. Washington Ave.
P.O. Box 711
Terry, MT 59349
(406) 635-4233
(971) 678-2975 cell

"I just received my second text message and email notice from AT &T that I am in violation of our contract. I had asked Justin K. in the Office of the President for AT & T to quit sending notices once a customer has like me reacted. It just infuriates me as I do not like to be threatened.

I now know the consequences of my actions by not reading the fine print in our contract about moving out of one of their prime service areas. Shame of me for my neglect. This thread of postings is being forwarded to Tim Cook, acting CEO for Apple, for his follow up.

On a lighter note I have my daughter Marissa visiting us here in Terry, Montana this week. She is a techi and has now installed WiFi at the place where I work in town in order for me to continue to use my iPhone as an iTouch. She lives in Los Angeles and has Verizon Wireless as her carrier. Of course, in that area cell phone customers have many carriers from which to choose but she thinks Verizon has the best coverage by far not only in LA but also in the hinterlands of the US. Marissa is a Scientist working for Amgen in their Thousand Oaks office and travels all over the US for conferences and meeting people.

This will be last thread from me on this web site as I have given up on AT & T or should I say they have given up on me. When they eventually do cut me off it will be the last time I will do business with them even if I have to start using smoke signals to send messages to my family and friends.

Goodbye AT &T."